Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

Influence of vacuum degree on the effect of gas explosion suppression by vacuum chamber

In order to study the influence of vacuum degree on gas explosion suppression by vacuum chamber, this study used the 0.2 mm thick polytetrafluoroethylene film as the diaphragm of vacuum chamber to carry out a series of experiments of gas explosion suppression by vacuum chamber with the vacuum degree from −0.01 MPa to −0.08 MPa. The experimental results show that: under the condition of any vacuum degree, vacuum chamber can effectively suppress the explosion flame and overpressure; as vacuum degree changes, the effect of gas explosion suppression using vacuum chamber is slightly different. Vacuum chamber has obvious influence on propagation characteristics of the explosion flame. After explosion flame passes by vacuum chamber, the flame signal weakens, the flame thickness becomes thicker, and the flame speed slows down. With the increase of the vacuum degree of vacuum chamber, the flame speed can be prevented from rising early by vacuum chamber. The higher the vacuum degree is, the more obviously the vacuum chamber attenuates the explosion overpressure, the smaller the average overpressure is, and the better effect of the gas explosion suppression is. Vacuum chamber can effectively weaken the explosion impulse under each vacuum degree. From the beginning of −0.01 MPa, the vacuum chamber can gradually weaken explosion impulse as the vacuum degree increases, and the effect of gas explosion suppression gradually becomes better. When the vacuum degree is greater than −0.04 MPa, the increase of vacuum degree can make the explosion overpressure decrease but have little influence on the explosion impulse. Therefore, the vacuum chamber has the preferable suppression effect with equal to or greater than −0.04 MPa vacuum degree.     

电磁混响室的理论设计与场均匀性仿真

总结了混响室腔室和搅拌器的设计准则,并依此完成了最低可用频率为400MHz的混响室腔室和搅拌器的设计。利用FEKO软件对混响室建模,进行场均匀性仿真,计算工作区8个位置的电场,得到场标准偏差。仿真结果表明,设计的混响室性能完全符合标准IEC61000-4-21的规定,电场均匀性小于3dB。     

机载设备的噪声环境试验研究

介绍了标准中所规定的试验载荷的计算方法,2种噪声试验装置——高声强混响室和高声强行波管,以及高声强试验系统和测试系统的组成。以GJB 150．86—17的图1声谱为基准,开展了机载设备的噪声环境试验研究,对噪声试验中试验夹具的设计和制造、试验样品的安装、试验前的检查和试验程序进行了说明,采用了开环和闭环方式控制声场,试验结果达到了国军标的要求。     

西安市LUCC预测生态系统服务价值损失

人类活动作用于土地资源,使LUCC（土地利用／土地覆被变化）在全球环境变化过程中起主导作用,随着国际LUCC研究计划的进展,各国依据本国的实际情况开展研究。对西安市以往五年（2000-2004年）的土地利用基础数据开展调查统计分析,建立灰色系统动态GM（1,1）模型,预测2005—2010年西安市土地利用结构变化状况,尝试计算西安市土地生态系统服务价值损失（简称生态损失）,用一种直观经济指标-货币来反映这种生态损失。预测2010年西安市生态损失为331、84×10^6元。     

鄂南4种典型土地利用方式红壤CO2排放及其影响因素

以湖北省咸宁地区分布的红壤为研究对象,采用静态箱法对4种典型土地利用方式（水稻-油菜轮作田,旱地,林地,果园）土壤CO₂的排放特征及其相关影响因子进行了观测研究.结果表明,4种利用方式土壤CO₂的年排放总量从高到低分别为水稻-油菜轮作田1 129 g/(m²·a),果园828 g/(m²·a),旱地632 g/(m²·a),林地533 g/(m²·a).土壤CO₂排放通量呈现明显的季节性变异,水田夏季淹水期排放低,而其它3种土壤都是夏季最高,春秋次之,冬季最低,并与对应的大气温度、土壤温度变化趋势基本一致.其中5 cm地温与4种土壤CO₂排放通量均成极显著的相关关系,且以林地的相关性最大.除水田外,其它土壤CO₂排放通量与大气温度均呈显著正相关关系.根据5 cm地温与CO₂排放通量的相关方程计算得出,4种利用方式红壤的Q₁₀分别为水田1.51,果园1.88,林地2.08,旱地2.7.土壤CO₂排放通量与土壤WFPS之间并没有明显的相关关系.土壤可溶性有机碳（DOC）含量与CO₂排放通量的变化趋势基本一致,且DOC在降水或淹水的情况下显著增大.     

室内空气污染预测方法的实证研究

在大型(30m3)、小型(1m3)环境箱实验获得数据的基础上构建释放模型,并将模拟结果和现场监测得到的浓度水平进行对比,对开发的室内空气污染预测方法进行了实证研究.以一新装修房间为例,分别利用大型和小型环境箱实验,研究了复杂整装材料和简单层状材料的释放规律,建立了相应材料的污染物释放模型;依据单元内物质守恒理论和污染物充分混合的假设将释放模型组合,建立了室内空气污染预测方法,并预测了该房间甲醛和TVOC(total volatile organic compounds)浓度的变化过程.在考虑了0.03ACH(air change per hour)的换气率之后,模型预测与现场监测的污染物浓度变化趋势基本吻合,甲醛和TVOC污染预测误差(正则化标准差)分别为2.8%和1.6%.模型分析表明,各污染源对于甲醛污染的贡献,家具＞涂料＞地板;对于TVOC污染的贡献,涂料＞地板＞家具.结论表明,该预测方法可以真实反映现场污染物浓度变化趋势,可以用来分析各污染源对于整体污染的贡献、指导装修材料的选择和作为室内污染评估和控制的有效工具.     

Geological emission of methane from the Yakela condensed oil/gas field in Talimu Basin, Xinjiang, China

A static flux chamber method was applied to study natural emissions of methane into the atmosphere in the Yakela condensed oil/gas field in Talimu Basin, Xinjiang, China. Using an online method, which couples a gas chromatography/high-temperature conversion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/MS) together, the 13C/12C ratios of methane in the flux chambers were measured. The results demonstrated that methane gases were liable to migrate from deep oil/gas reservoir to the surface through microseepage and p...     

基于DFTA的电梯制动器可靠性分析

电梯制动器是电梯最重要的安全部件之一,故研究其可靠性具有重要意义。首先分析了电梯制动器的故障机理并建立了动态故障树模型,其次利用二元决策图和马尔科夫方法对故障树进行了分析计算,得到了影响系统可靠性的相关指标以及制动器的薄弱环节,最后提出了改进措施和建议,为电梯制动器的设计、维修保养及检验提供了科学依据。     

扬水曝气器曝气室提水性能模型应用研究

文章根据扬水曝气器曝气室的流体特性,在曝气室内气-液两相流体所受推动力和曳力平衡条件下,建立了一维两相流提水性能模型,并应用于同温层曝气器流体运动特性的模拟预测。结果表明:模型对同温层曝气器上升段气含率的估计值与实测值之间的误差限为±10%,对流体表观上升速度的误差限为±20%。这说明提水性能模型对同温层曝气器的流体特性模拟具有很强的适用性。